The Myth Index
Myth: Feeling sure means you're right.
Certainty is how strongly you hold a memory or a belief. It is not a test of whether the belief is accurate.
What's really going on
What people sayI know what happened. I was there. I'm sure of it.
What's realYour own certainty is not evidence.
Recall is reconstruction, not playback. Some details line up with what happened and some don't, and the brain doesn't flag which are which.
Feeling sure tells you how firmly you hold it. Checking it against something outside your own head tells you whether it holds up.
Your own memory is probabilistic. Your OWN certainty is not evidence.@therapy_bites, 2026